How Many Conflicts Escalate Beyond Repair Within A Year

By
Eric Brahm

September 2003

It has become common to describe conflicts as passing through a serial of phases.[ane] Different authors name and depict these stages differently, just near include, at a minimum:

• No conflict
• Latent conflict
• Emergence
• Escalation
• (Pain) Stalemate
• De-Escalation
• Settlement/Resolution
• Mail-Disharmonize Peacebuilding and Reconciliation

These phases are frequently shown on a diagram that looks something like this, although the accompanying text will e'er explicate that the progress from i stage to the adjacent is not smooth and conflicts may repeat stages several times.

These stages are described briefly in this introductory essay, and then each is discussed in more depth in other essays.

The potential for disharmonize exists whenever people have different needs, values, or interests; this is the "latent" conflict stage. The conflict may not go apparent until a "triggering event" leads to the emergence (or starting time) of the obvious conflict. Emergence may be followed quickly by settlement or resolution, or it may be followed by escalation, which can go very destructive.

Additional insights into disharmonize stages are offered past Across Intractability project participants.

Escalation, nevertheless, cannot continue indefinitely. De-escalation can exist temporary or tin exist part of a broader trend toward settlement or resolution. Or escalation may lead to a stalemate, a situation in which neither side can win. If the pain of standing the conflict exceeds that of maintaining the confrontation, the parties are in what Zartman calls a "hurting stalemate,"[2] which often presents an ideal opportunity for negotiation and a potential settlement. Finally, if and when an agreement is reached, peacebuilding efforts piece of work to repair damaged relationships with the long-term goal of reconciling one-time opponents.

Some scholars add other phases to this listing. For intractable conflict, in detail, Kriesberg adds failed peacemaking efforts afterwards escalation, and institutionalization of destructive conflict subsequently that.[three] This latter stage is closely linked with the hurting stalemate.

Alker, Gurr, and Rupesinghe distinguish between six phases:

• dispute (equivalent to conflict emergence);
• crunch (equivalent to escalation);
• limited violence;
• massive violence;
• abatement (equivalent to de-escalation); and
• settlement.[4]

These stages are similar to those ready out past the Circuitous Emergency Response and Transition Initiative (CERTI) project:

• conflict,
• crunch,
• chaos,
• complex emergency,
• recovery.

The related Health as a Bridge for Peace (HBP) project defines 5 phases:

• impending crisis,
• outbreak of violence,
• war,
• mail-crunch, and
• stable peace (which is one stage beyond the terminal stage of the offset list above).[5]

All of these models are arcadian. Actual conflicts usually practice not follow a linear path. Rather, they evolve in fits and starts, alternatively experiencing progress and setbacks toward resolution. The lack of linear progress helps to give the conflict a sense of intractability. Escalation may resume after temporary stalemate or negotiation. Escalation and de-escalation may alternate. Negotiations may have place in the absence of a stalemate. However, these models are nevertheless useful, because nigh conflicts pass through similar stages at least once in their history.

Delineating different stages is likewise useful in efforts to resolve conflict. By recognizing the different dynamics occurring at each stage of a conflict, one tin can appreciate that the strategies and tactics for participants and interveners differ depending on the phase of the conflict.

A diagram by the Health as a Span for Peace (HBP) project[half-dozen] illustrates both their and the CERTI stages of conflict, linked to appropriate response measures. Ane can quibble almost the relationship between the outside (white) circumvolve and the inside (bluish) circle. Many scholars and interveners, for instance, would argue that peacebuilding should take place all effectually the circle, with the possible exception of the stable peace stage, past which fourth dimension peacebuilding has become institutionalized and is done as office of everyday life.

We note that the stage of a conflict is determined subjectively by those involved. Some participants may see the conflict equally escalating, while others believe it is de-escalating; one side may perceive itself to be in a hurting stalemate, while the other side believes it tin can prevail through continued force. Determining each party's assumptions regarding the stage of the conflict is thus of import, earlier one tin design a conflict direction, transformation, or resolution strategy.

In addition, Kriesberg observes that the sequence of the phases differs from group to group. "Moderates, hardliners, spoilers, and various other factions inside each camp tend to be in different phases of intractability at any given fourth dimension. Therefore, shifts in the relative size and influence of these factions will produce changes in the conflict'southward course."[7]

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[1] See, for example, Creative Associates International, Inc., Conflict Prevention Guide Click here for full URL.

[2] I William Zartman, Ripe for Resolution (New York: Oxford, 1985/1989)

[3] Louis Kriesberg, "Nature, Dynamics, and Phases of Intractability" Affiliate in a forthcoming volume edited by Chester Crocker, Fen Hampson, and Pamela Aall on Intractable Conflicts (exact title as yet unknown), to be published past U.Southward. Institute of Peace Press.

[4] The Conflict Database, accessible online at Click here for full URL.

[5]Rosalia Rodriguez-Garcia, et al. "How Can Health Serve every bit a Span for Peace?" Available online at http://www.certi.org/publications/policy/gwc-12-a-cursory.htm.

[6] R. Rodriguez-Garcia, J. Macinko, X. Solorzano, Chiliad. Schlesser. "How Can Health Serve as a Span for Peace?" The George Washington Academy School of Public Health and Health Services. Available online at http://world wide web.certi.org/publications/policy/gwc-12-a-cursory.htm.

[7] Louis Kriesberg in a draft version of "Nature, Dynamics, and Phases of Intractability" a chapter in a forthcoming book edited by Chester Crocker, Fen Hampson, and Pamela Aall on Intractable Conflicts (verbal title as all the same unknown), to be published by U.Southward. Plant of Peace Press.

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Use the following to cite this article:
Brahm, Eric. "Conflict Stages." Beyond Intractability. Eds. Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess. Conflict Data Consortium, University of Colorado, Boulder. Posted: September 2003 <http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/conflict-stages>.

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How Many Conflicts Escalate Beyond Repair Within A Year,

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